Since I had the privilege of attending the season’s first Blazer game last night (preseason home opener against the Clippers, I thought I would share my scouting report of the team and the event. The Blazers won 111-102 after an impressive run at the end of the third and beginning of the fourth led primarily by 22 second half points from Webster who couldn’t miss.
The Rose Garden
• MAX is really the only way to go when going to a game. No parking cost or hassle and the train is full of Blazer fans which helps get you in the right mood for the game. It’s not like tailgating at a college football game, but it still has a small, but beneficial fraction of the same affect.
• There is a giant Oden jersey hanging from the outside of the arena. My son and I just stood for a moment and stared at it in subdued sadness. Then my Son said, poignantly and profoundly, “I think that jersey is too big for him.”
• My son was disappointed that our favorite Blazer dancer (his former Sunday school teacher) has retired. However, he still said the other dancers “seemed nice too” so it will be ok. I thought you would want to know.
• The arena has a brand new scoreboard. It is the most amazing piece of arena/stadium technology I have other seen other than the retracting roof at Safeco. WOW!. First, it is enormous. I don’t know the specs, but the thing is really, really big. Second, it has screens on all 4 sides that show the game and highlights and silly videos in HD. That’s right, true HD. If you are in the upper level, you can actually see the game much better on the scoreboard than on the court. It is fantastic.
• I was unable to find the garlic fries they served last year. I’m not saying they’re gone as I didn’t go all the way around the arena, but it did make me nervous. I love me some garlic fries.
The Clippers
• The Clippers are going to be really, really bad this year without Brand. Not T-Wolves bad, but still very bad.
• Neither Magette nor Kaman played so I didn’t get a real good picture of their starting unit, but those guys are going to have to have career years for this team to be even respectable.
• Sam I am isn’t done. He is still one of the best offensive point guards in the game. He single handedly carried the Clips for most of the game. He’s old and can’t play huge minutes any more and is a bit of a liability on D, but if I were Danny Ferry and couldn’t pry Mike Bibby away, I would take a hard run at Sam. He could be the difference maker in the Eastern conference if he’s traded. If the Celtics get him, fuhgetaboutit.
• Al Thornton is a darkhorse candidate for rookie of the year. I know everyone has already given it to Durant and that is probably a good bet. I expect Durant to put up fairly gaudy numbers (except for FG%) because Seattle will have to rely on him so much. That said, Thornton looked good. He’s a good rebounder for his size and very good slashing to the basket. He looks like more of a one-on-one player than one who fits in the flow of the offense, but he doesn’t look like a rookie. He went for 18 and 10 last night and was fairly impressive.
The Blazers
• The team started strong with Aldridge hitting everything he threw at the rim, but faded at the end of the first quarter. This fade previewed two problems I expect they will have all year. First, this team still has some issues defensively. Aldridge and the Thrilla are the only natural rebounders on the team. While the rest of the guys give it an effort, defensive rebounding is going to have to improve. Plus, I hate to say it, but Blake is a liability on D. Sam made him look silly and I’m not really sure why Jack didn’t get that assignment right away as he is exactly the kind of physical defensive guard that could slow Sam up a bit. That said, Cassell did get Jack to bight hard on his signature pump-fake and then throw your flailing body into the defender and draw a foul. Ridiculous, but extremely effective move. I have a hard time blaming Jack though since Sam has been doing that to everyone in the league for years.
Second, this team is going to struggle in the half court. That is where they miss Roy the most since he remains the only guy who can get his own shot consistently, but still they have to improve. When they have to play in the half court for multiple possessions in a row, they get very jumpshot happy and don’t look good. This is going to be an issue all year I think. How much of one remains to be seen.
• The new desired uptempo pace was on display as the Blazers hit their 100 point goal relatively early in the 4th quarter and really kept a consistent scoring pace throughout. This team’s struggle in the half court makes the new pace absolutely critical. The problem I saw with it is that the team lacks good finishers on the break. Jack and Green are the only point guards that are even serviceable at finishing their own shots at the rim. If the ball handler is not a credible threat to beat you, this will kill many a fast break. The wings are either jump shooters like Webster and Jones or spot up shooting post players like Frye and Aldridge. Roy will help here a lot, but I was looking for Outlaw and even Aldridge for that matter to be flying up the court and at the rim more than they were. Outlaw is such a bad ball-handler that if he doesn’t catch a lob pass for a dunk, he is worthless. Aldridge and Fry just don’t look fluid in transition unless it is to hurry back and post up. So, there were lots of times when the PG would push the action and end up without anyone filling the lanes. That’s going to be a problem
• The Point guards – Jack played fewer minutes than anyone else, but was easily the best of the group. His defense is better than solid and he just seemed to command the team better than the others. Even more important, as noted above, he can finish at the rim. He is so strong that he doesn’t have to be a great leaper and is pretty good at getting his own shot or drawing a foul on the break as needed. Blake and Sergio are worthless in this department. Because they are so bad at finishing (though Blake had a great drive at the first half buzzer), when they are in, the fast break becomes considerably more difficult. Sergio can really push it, but teams play off him so much that they can just play the passing lanes and render him harmless since he can’t shoot. Blake just isn’t athletic enough, though he is going to help this team.
Staying on Blake, he had a poor shooting night, but he is a great asset. Calm under pressure, gets other people involved and can usually hit the open shot. He’s not a great defender, but he works at it. I think he will be a great back up, but Jack is clearly better, especially as a starter.
Sergio does not deserve the minutes he’s getting. He has no shot at all and teams now realize it and back way off him making his ball handling and passing skills much less dangerous. He is also such a liability on defense, the Blazers are going to have to play a lot of zone when he’s in the game to keep every guard in the league from either posting him up or just going by him. He can push the tempo which is good and is still the team’s most creative passer, but he is still a novelty act more than a real contributor. If he has any trade value off of last year’s buzz, I think the Blazers should cash in now. Maybe he becomes a good PG in the future, but he is not the next Nash. Nash came in as a shooter. He was money in college and that was really his primary skill. The great passing came later. I don’t think you can do it the other way nearly as easy. Also….
Taurean Green was a steal in the second round. That kid can flat out play. Like Sergio, he loves to push the ball and has a good feel on the fast break. Unlike Sergio, he can really shoot from the outside and even finish at the rim a bit. I like what I saw out of Green. He played under control and with a surprising amount of confidence for a rookie playing PG for Nate with 3 guys ahead of him. I would give every one of Sergio’s minutes to Green right now. He may not be quite the passer, but every other aspect is so superior, I don’t see how they keep him on the bench this year.
The Wings – Wow, do the Blazers miss Roy, especially in the half court. There is just no one else (except maybe Jack) that dribbles well enough to consistently create a shot for himself when the offense breaks down during a half-court set. I was hoping that would be Outlaw who can get the ball at the free-throw line and just jump over everyone for what should be an easy shot. But I don’t think it is. The wings don’t contribute much but shooting without Roy which will be a problem when those shots aren’t falling. Still, the shooting appears to be vastly improved, so maybe it won’t be as ugly as I fear.
Roy – Did I mention they miss him?
Webster – It was fun to see him play aggressively and hit his shots. I expect those two things were very closely related. He scored 28 and had to have shot a high percentage and probably knocked down 4 or 5 3s. Aldridge and Frye were both getting doubled and Martel hit every open shot. More importantly, he appears to have developed a reliable mid range shot off of a fake drive and step back. He hit every one he tried last night. I would still like to see him attack a bit more and fill the lane on the break some instead of immediately fading to the 3 point line, but his rebounding and D looked improved and if his shot is falling like it was last night, he is going to be a huge difference maker. Since he seems a bit fragile emotionally, it was good to see him get off to such a good start.
Outlaw – Outlaw started, but he’s clearly better with the second unit. He needs to get his points going one on one or by outrunning power forwards. At the 3 as a starter, he just isn’t going to get plays called for him and that seems to take him out of the offense. When he came on last year it was when he was one of the focal points of the offense off the bench. I think they need to start Webster or Jones and make Outlaw the 6th man. He was also much less active than he was at the end of last year and I can’t help but think that is related to his reported lack of conditioning. So, that will hopefully get better and lead to further possessions where the PG beats everyone down the floor and has to pull up. Finally, someone needs to take him aside and teach him how to play the screener on the screen roll. It was ugly.
James Jones – He’s going to help. He can play both forward positions as long as he doesn’t have to guard a real bruiser at the 4 and he can shoot. I think Aldridge is going to get some double teams and having Jones and Webster looks like it will pay dividends. In fact, they played pretty well together spreading the floor and I won’t be surprised to see them get some run at the same time. Jones didn’t shoot all that well last night, but hit enough to keep the D honest, but I think the Blazers are much better equipped this year to handle the Zone.
The bigs – Joel and LaMarcus started and I think they will all year barring injuries. They play well together since Joel doesn’t need the ball and can get Aldridge’s back against bigger players. As good as Webster played, I really thought it was the big guys that gave me the most hope for the upcoming season and beyond.
Przybilla – He knows he’s putting the z in his name in the wrong place right? I mean he’s pulling a Favre and someone should let him know so he can do something about that. I didn’t really get to see the much ballyhooed new shot, but he at least looked like himself again after last year’s absence. He can’t buy a foul call going his way, but he rebounded well and played solid D. Because Frye and Aldridge are so good offensively, it will not surprise me to see Joel lose minutes to that combination, but he looks ready to help the team again which is nice.
Aldridge – He was money. I really think he is primed to become a force offensively and I think it will happen this year. If he stays healthy I think he will score close to 20ppg, no kidding. He is such a good shooter and has such a good feel around the basket, that when you combine that with his length and ability to get down the floor he is going to be really tough to stop. The only areas of concern were his difficulty in finishing on the break and his strength inside. To the first point, he just looks awkward trying to fill the lane. He doesn’t have any Shawn Marion in him. He wants to come down and get open, not come down and dunk over someone. He can still be effective, but I was hoping to see him finishing a bit better in the flow of the fast break. To the second point, the no name power forwards for the Clippers were moving him off the block pretty easily. To his credit, he still found a way to score or get to the line, but it was usually from further out. In other words, he’s not really a great post player yet and is going to be vulnerable to lesser but physical players like Craig Smith or Rony Turiaf. Still, he looks much more ready to replace Randolph’s offense than I expected.
Frye – Frye missed some gimmes, but he still played well. He has been advertised as a great shooter and he certainly showed a nice touch from the outside, but he was very active on the inside as well. I expect he could be the Blazers’ leading offensive rebounder and will even provide some good post options with the second unit. He runs the floor very well and I definitely see him being able to play with Aldridge when the offense needs a boost. Really, their games and styles look amazingly similar with Aldridge just being somewhat more skilled. It would be nice if one of them were more of a bruiser and they may struggle on the boards against some bigger teams, but Frye is going to be good.
LaFrentz – He’s not going to be in the rotation. I went in thinking he could get some minutes this year after Oden went down, but he just doesn’t fit with this team. He doesn’t run the floor well enough and can’t score in the post at all. He’s not a terrible player, but he doesn’t seem to fit here.
Overall, I liked what I saw last night. There is lots to improve on and it did come against one of the worst teams in the league playing without 2 starters, but there was still lots to like and after all, the Blazers did it without their best player as well. It also would have been great to see the big fella out there doing his thing, but this team is still going to surprise some people and whether it shows up in wins and losses this year, they will be a fun team to watch.
The Rose Garden
• MAX is really the only way to go when going to a game. No parking cost or hassle and the train is full of Blazer fans which helps get you in the right mood for the game. It’s not like tailgating at a college football game, but it still has a small, but beneficial fraction of the same affect.
• There is a giant Oden jersey hanging from the outside of the arena. My son and I just stood for a moment and stared at it in subdued sadness. Then my Son said, poignantly and profoundly, “I think that jersey is too big for him.”
• My son was disappointed that our favorite Blazer dancer (his former Sunday school teacher) has retired. However, he still said the other dancers “seemed nice too” so it will be ok. I thought you would want to know.
• The arena has a brand new scoreboard. It is the most amazing piece of arena/stadium technology I have other seen other than the retracting roof at Safeco. WOW!. First, it is enormous. I don’t know the specs, but the thing is really, really big. Second, it has screens on all 4 sides that show the game and highlights and silly videos in HD. That’s right, true HD. If you are in the upper level, you can actually see the game much better on the scoreboard than on the court. It is fantastic.
• I was unable to find the garlic fries they served last year. I’m not saying they’re gone as I didn’t go all the way around the arena, but it did make me nervous. I love me some garlic fries.
The Clippers
• The Clippers are going to be really, really bad this year without Brand. Not T-Wolves bad, but still very bad.
• Neither Magette nor Kaman played so I didn’t get a real good picture of their starting unit, but those guys are going to have to have career years for this team to be even respectable.
• Sam I am isn’t done. He is still one of the best offensive point guards in the game. He single handedly carried the Clips for most of the game. He’s old and can’t play huge minutes any more and is a bit of a liability on D, but if I were Danny Ferry and couldn’t pry Mike Bibby away, I would take a hard run at Sam. He could be the difference maker in the Eastern conference if he’s traded. If the Celtics get him, fuhgetaboutit.
• Al Thornton is a darkhorse candidate for rookie of the year. I know everyone has already given it to Durant and that is probably a good bet. I expect Durant to put up fairly gaudy numbers (except for FG%) because Seattle will have to rely on him so much. That said, Thornton looked good. He’s a good rebounder for his size and very good slashing to the basket. He looks like more of a one-on-one player than one who fits in the flow of the offense, but he doesn’t look like a rookie. He went for 18 and 10 last night and was fairly impressive.
The Blazers
• The team started strong with Aldridge hitting everything he threw at the rim, but faded at the end of the first quarter. This fade previewed two problems I expect they will have all year. First, this team still has some issues defensively. Aldridge and the Thrilla are the only natural rebounders on the team. While the rest of the guys give it an effort, defensive rebounding is going to have to improve. Plus, I hate to say it, but Blake is a liability on D. Sam made him look silly and I’m not really sure why Jack didn’t get that assignment right away as he is exactly the kind of physical defensive guard that could slow Sam up a bit. That said, Cassell did get Jack to bight hard on his signature pump-fake and then throw your flailing body into the defender and draw a foul. Ridiculous, but extremely effective move. I have a hard time blaming Jack though since Sam has been doing that to everyone in the league for years.
Second, this team is going to struggle in the half court. That is where they miss Roy the most since he remains the only guy who can get his own shot consistently, but still they have to improve. When they have to play in the half court for multiple possessions in a row, they get very jumpshot happy and don’t look good. This is going to be an issue all year I think. How much of one remains to be seen.
• The new desired uptempo pace was on display as the Blazers hit their 100 point goal relatively early in the 4th quarter and really kept a consistent scoring pace throughout. This team’s struggle in the half court makes the new pace absolutely critical. The problem I saw with it is that the team lacks good finishers on the break. Jack and Green are the only point guards that are even serviceable at finishing their own shots at the rim. If the ball handler is not a credible threat to beat you, this will kill many a fast break. The wings are either jump shooters like Webster and Jones or spot up shooting post players like Frye and Aldridge. Roy will help here a lot, but I was looking for Outlaw and even Aldridge for that matter to be flying up the court and at the rim more than they were. Outlaw is such a bad ball-handler that if he doesn’t catch a lob pass for a dunk, he is worthless. Aldridge and Fry just don’t look fluid in transition unless it is to hurry back and post up. So, there were lots of times when the PG would push the action and end up without anyone filling the lanes. That’s going to be a problem
• The Point guards – Jack played fewer minutes than anyone else, but was easily the best of the group. His defense is better than solid and he just seemed to command the team better than the others. Even more important, as noted above, he can finish at the rim. He is so strong that he doesn’t have to be a great leaper and is pretty good at getting his own shot or drawing a foul on the break as needed. Blake and Sergio are worthless in this department. Because they are so bad at finishing (though Blake had a great drive at the first half buzzer), when they are in, the fast break becomes considerably more difficult. Sergio can really push it, but teams play off him so much that they can just play the passing lanes and render him harmless since he can’t shoot. Blake just isn’t athletic enough, though he is going to help this team.
Staying on Blake, he had a poor shooting night, but he is a great asset. Calm under pressure, gets other people involved and can usually hit the open shot. He’s not a great defender, but he works at it. I think he will be a great back up, but Jack is clearly better, especially as a starter.
Sergio does not deserve the minutes he’s getting. He has no shot at all and teams now realize it and back way off him making his ball handling and passing skills much less dangerous. He is also such a liability on defense, the Blazers are going to have to play a lot of zone when he’s in the game to keep every guard in the league from either posting him up or just going by him. He can push the tempo which is good and is still the team’s most creative passer, but he is still a novelty act more than a real contributor. If he has any trade value off of last year’s buzz, I think the Blazers should cash in now. Maybe he becomes a good PG in the future, but he is not the next Nash. Nash came in as a shooter. He was money in college and that was really his primary skill. The great passing came later. I don’t think you can do it the other way nearly as easy. Also….
Taurean Green was a steal in the second round. That kid can flat out play. Like Sergio, he loves to push the ball and has a good feel on the fast break. Unlike Sergio, he can really shoot from the outside and even finish at the rim a bit. I like what I saw out of Green. He played under control and with a surprising amount of confidence for a rookie playing PG for Nate with 3 guys ahead of him. I would give every one of Sergio’s minutes to Green right now. He may not be quite the passer, but every other aspect is so superior, I don’t see how they keep him on the bench this year.
The Wings – Wow, do the Blazers miss Roy, especially in the half court. There is just no one else (except maybe Jack) that dribbles well enough to consistently create a shot for himself when the offense breaks down during a half-court set. I was hoping that would be Outlaw who can get the ball at the free-throw line and just jump over everyone for what should be an easy shot. But I don’t think it is. The wings don’t contribute much but shooting without Roy which will be a problem when those shots aren’t falling. Still, the shooting appears to be vastly improved, so maybe it won’t be as ugly as I fear.
Roy – Did I mention they miss him?
Webster – It was fun to see him play aggressively and hit his shots. I expect those two things were very closely related. He scored 28 and had to have shot a high percentage and probably knocked down 4 or 5 3s. Aldridge and Frye were both getting doubled and Martel hit every open shot. More importantly, he appears to have developed a reliable mid range shot off of a fake drive and step back. He hit every one he tried last night. I would still like to see him attack a bit more and fill the lane on the break some instead of immediately fading to the 3 point line, but his rebounding and D looked improved and if his shot is falling like it was last night, he is going to be a huge difference maker. Since he seems a bit fragile emotionally, it was good to see him get off to such a good start.
Outlaw – Outlaw started, but he’s clearly better with the second unit. He needs to get his points going one on one or by outrunning power forwards. At the 3 as a starter, he just isn’t going to get plays called for him and that seems to take him out of the offense. When he came on last year it was when he was one of the focal points of the offense off the bench. I think they need to start Webster or Jones and make Outlaw the 6th man. He was also much less active than he was at the end of last year and I can’t help but think that is related to his reported lack of conditioning. So, that will hopefully get better and lead to further possessions where the PG beats everyone down the floor and has to pull up. Finally, someone needs to take him aside and teach him how to play the screener on the screen roll. It was ugly.
James Jones – He’s going to help. He can play both forward positions as long as he doesn’t have to guard a real bruiser at the 4 and he can shoot. I think Aldridge is going to get some double teams and having Jones and Webster looks like it will pay dividends. In fact, they played pretty well together spreading the floor and I won’t be surprised to see them get some run at the same time. Jones didn’t shoot all that well last night, but hit enough to keep the D honest, but I think the Blazers are much better equipped this year to handle the Zone.
The bigs – Joel and LaMarcus started and I think they will all year barring injuries. They play well together since Joel doesn’t need the ball and can get Aldridge’s back against bigger players. As good as Webster played, I really thought it was the big guys that gave me the most hope for the upcoming season and beyond.
Przybilla – He knows he’s putting the z in his name in the wrong place right? I mean he’s pulling a Favre and someone should let him know so he can do something about that. I didn’t really get to see the much ballyhooed new shot, but he at least looked like himself again after last year’s absence. He can’t buy a foul call going his way, but he rebounded well and played solid D. Because Frye and Aldridge are so good offensively, it will not surprise me to see Joel lose minutes to that combination, but he looks ready to help the team again which is nice.
Aldridge – He was money. I really think he is primed to become a force offensively and I think it will happen this year. If he stays healthy I think he will score close to 20ppg, no kidding. He is such a good shooter and has such a good feel around the basket, that when you combine that with his length and ability to get down the floor he is going to be really tough to stop. The only areas of concern were his difficulty in finishing on the break and his strength inside. To the first point, he just looks awkward trying to fill the lane. He doesn’t have any Shawn Marion in him. He wants to come down and get open, not come down and dunk over someone. He can still be effective, but I was hoping to see him finishing a bit better in the flow of the fast break. To the second point, the no name power forwards for the Clippers were moving him off the block pretty easily. To his credit, he still found a way to score or get to the line, but it was usually from further out. In other words, he’s not really a great post player yet and is going to be vulnerable to lesser but physical players like Craig Smith or Rony Turiaf. Still, he looks much more ready to replace Randolph’s offense than I expected.
Frye – Frye missed some gimmes, but he still played well. He has been advertised as a great shooter and he certainly showed a nice touch from the outside, but he was very active on the inside as well. I expect he could be the Blazers’ leading offensive rebounder and will even provide some good post options with the second unit. He runs the floor very well and I definitely see him being able to play with Aldridge when the offense needs a boost. Really, their games and styles look amazingly similar with Aldridge just being somewhat more skilled. It would be nice if one of them were more of a bruiser and they may struggle on the boards against some bigger teams, but Frye is going to be good.
LaFrentz – He’s not going to be in the rotation. I went in thinking he could get some minutes this year after Oden went down, but he just doesn’t fit with this team. He doesn’t run the floor well enough and can’t score in the post at all. He’s not a terrible player, but he doesn’t seem to fit here.
Overall, I liked what I saw last night. There is lots to improve on and it did come against one of the worst teams in the league playing without 2 starters, but there was still lots to like and after all, the Blazers did it without their best player as well. It also would have been great to see the big fella out there doing his thing, but this team is still going to surprise some people and whether it shows up in wins and losses this year, they will be a fun team to watch.
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