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NBA Stuff

Sure, I could have posted something right after the most important NBA draft of my lifetime. Or I could have waited and posted something as soon as teams could talk to free agents. But then I would have been just like every other writer and blogger dispensing relevant insight in a timely manner. And where’s the fun in being just like everyone else?

So, instead I decided to wait until no one really cares any more. It’s a technique I will be sure to teach whenever I’m invited to be a sports journalism professor at Harvard or some place like that.

Lots to cover. Should be a long post. Let’s get right to it.

DRAFT RECAP

I got to watch the NBA draft (or as I like to call it, “The birth of a dynasty”), with my good friends John and Jeeva. Wanting to avoid the usual sportsbar dive food, we met at a swanky sports bar in a trendy part of Portland. Turns out, they import all of their food from dive sportsbars. Dang. Can’t really endorse the “Upper Deck” sports bar…or is it “On Deck”? Either way, avoid all Portland sports bar’s with “deck” in the name.

Still, nothing could dampen our spirits on this night, not even the waiter’s steadfast refusal to come clean on what kind of animal produced the ribs I was eating. After all, my favorite NBA franchise had the first pick in a draft featuring two franchise players including one that happened to be 7 feet tall, skilled, young, mature beyond his years, strong, athletic and hilarious. With The Natural fresh off his rookie of the year season and Aldridge looking like a future star, adding either Greg Oden or Kevin Durant should ensure that Portland is very good for a long time.

Thankfully, when the time came, Kevin Pritchard did the right thing yet again and took Oden with the top pick which I figure means the Blazers will bring in the next decade with another championship parade down Broadway. Hopefully no one will steal Oden’ bike.

But tons has been written about Oden already, including waaaaaaay too much information about his tonsils so let me give my take on the rest of the lottery.

Seattle – Durant – easiest choice in the history of the lottery. Too bad their best young player plays the same position, but since they aren’t stupid enough to give Rashard Lewis 120 mil over 6 years, Durant is the perfect pick

Atlanta – Really, really thought they would trade this pick. I think they are closer than people think to being good. I would say a decent PG and veteran big away. For example, if they had gotten KG and signed Blake or Mo Williams or something like that, they might be my pick to win the East. Lots of rumors but nothing happened so they did the smart thing and took the best player available in Horford even if they do already have a bunch of forwards including a power forward taken with their first round pick last year. At least this year they didn’t take a player like 25 picks too early.

Memphis – Mike Conley Jr. – I’m sorry, but I’m just not sold on this kid. I don’t think he can take over games. I don’t like the basketball IQ. I don’t like the outside shot. Maybe you can look past some of that for a young PG, but not one you are taking 4th overall in a loaded draft. Memphis did desperately need a PG but give me Mo Williams and Yi instead. If Yi was going to hold them up like he’s holding the Bucks up, then maybe you take him and trade him for Andre Miller and the Sixer’s pick. Maybe Conley will prove me wrong, but I bet he gets beat out by Kyle Lowry.

Boston – Traded to Seattle for a front row seat to Ray Allen’s declining years – Jeff Green – Love this trade for Seattle. They knew they were losing Rashard and knew Ray Ray was just going to get grumpier with a rebuilding team. So, why not dump all your stars and start over while they still have enough value to get some decent players to keep you marginally competitive (i.e., not a total disgrace) and a great draft pick. Jeff Green was one of my favorite players in this draft. I think he had that Brandon Roy, NBA ready college player feel to him. I thought he was being underrated and would have taken him ahead of Brewer who people seemed to like more. But, I don’t like this pick for Seattle. They just took Durant. Are they going to play them together and make one of them guard an NBA 4? Yikes. Do they figure anyone they take is coming off the bench, so who cares? Why take the two best small forwards in the draft, when there is a Chinese Dirk Nowitzki just waiting to go to a city with a huge Asian community? Ok, so maybe Yi and Durant’s game overlap as much as Durant and Green, but I still think Yi was the better pick. That said, still a great move for Seattle and a disastrous move for Boston. I think Ray has another good year or two in him, but the outside-outside combo of Pierce and Allen will not only not make them contenders, but it will stunt the development of Jefferson. I think they would have been better off trading Pierce and moving on. Oh well. At least Allen is able to pull off the impressive feat of playing with 3 NBA teams who have green and white as their colors.

Milwaukee – Ji Jianlian – We need to get this guy a nickname soon so that (a) we can stop trying to figure out which of his names to call him or how to pronounce either and (b) get to him before Berman does a highlight package and calls him Yi “true Hollywood story” Jianlian. I feel for Milwaukie and do not believe Yi’s agent should be able to get away with their little blackmail game, but I would have avoided the mess and taken Brandon Wright who fits better on this team anyway. I hope Ji goes to Milwaukee to preserve the integrity of the draft, since I root for a small market team. But Milwaukee knew what they were doing and made this bed for themselves when a player that suits them better was on the board. They need someone to go inside and be able to finish inside, but doesn’t Yi basically do what Bogut and Charlie V already do?

Minnesota – Corey Brewer – Easy call. He wasn’t supposed to slide this far. Great pick for them really as it gives them a good backcourt of the future in Foye (offense) and Brewer (defense) to build around along with whatever they can get for KG and Ricky Ricky before the trade deadline. Just make Phoenix trade Amare and be done with that mess.

Charlotte – Traded to GS for the right to curse at JRich for taking so many ill-advised 3s until he gets injured 20 games into the season – Brandon Right – GS was pissed that the Bucks took Yi, who appeared built for Nellie ball, so they took the best prospect on the board and a guy ‘Sota could really use in their rebuilding plan should they finally decide to part with their franchise player. Interestingly, even though this is the best talent available, if this is not a trade piece, it is a questionable pick. He was the best talent on the board, but does he fit in Nellie’s system? Seems not. Also, with GS so close, why give up JRich (even though he’s not that great) who fits perfectly in their system? I don’t get it unless it all leads to a bigger trade later in the summer. Just a terrible trade for Charlotte. I get that they have to spend that cap money sometime, but on this guy? Still, Felton, JRich, G-Force, May and Okafor is no joke, so if that gets them to the playoffs (which it won’t ), then it’s not a terrible trade…I guess.

Chicago – Joakim Noah – Just don’t like this dude. Don’t like his personality, his dancing, his hair or his game. Can’t shoot at all and should get shoved around plenty. Plus, Wallace becomes more and more untradeable by the minute and you can’t have both of those guys on the floor at the same time. Plus you already have a skinny, energy forward with Thomas. Should have traded this pick along with Noc in a sign and trade to Portland for Zach. Works better for both teams.

Sacramento – Spencer Hawes – Sorry, but has “next white stiff center” written all over him. He’s actually looked pretty good in summer league, so maybe he’ll be better than I think, but I think he’s not going to help much now or later. People keep comparing him to Brad Miller, but Miller was a dominant player in college and Hawes was streaky at best. I think someone like Thornton, who could come in and give your fans something to cheer for now after Artest and Bibby are gone makes more sense.

Atlanta – Acie Law – I like this pick. This kid is a killer. I think he will be Sam Cassel Redux. He also fits Atlanta perfectly because he’s a good enough scorer to play off the ball when JJ plays at the point. Good pick.

Philly – Thaddeus Young – Supposed to be very talented. I don’t know too much about him. They seem to already have Carney and AI playing this position though, so I think I would have gone with Rodney Stuckey here as a scoring compliment to Dre Miller, but Young could prove to be good, so I can’t criticize it too much. Actually, yes I can. They shouldn’t have grabbed another 3.

NO – Julian Wright – Great pick. If NO is healthy, they have Paul, West and Peja who can all score, so they don’t need a big time scorer. Wright is a great talent who is unselfish and a good passer. I think he fits the Diaw role for this team and helps right away.

Clippers – Al Thornton – I would get this more if there were more Maggette trade rumors floating around, but I hear none. I think Thornton can come in and help right away off the bench, so I don’t have a problem with this pick. If it were up to me though I would have taken Crittenton who I think will end up being a steal for the Lakers (except that he won’t be allowed to develop there unless they trade Kobe). Forunately for the Clipps and their fans, they intend to sign the ghost of Steve Francis to save them at the PG position. Brand should start practicing now to not get the ball earlier than 22 seconds into the shot clock to approximate Stevie’s love for dribbling away the offense.

Other first round picks I liked:

Crittenton to LA – big guard, more ready now than people think because of ability to finish and score

Fernandez to Portland – Manu with better hops. This guy is fearless and will be a Barbosa type headache off of Portland’s bench next season.

Almond to Utah – They desperately need shooting and he is a good one. Makes sense to me even if they sign Mo Pete

Tucker to Phoenix – I’m a big fan of guys that show they can really play even if a break down of their individual skills isn’t flattering. So, he’s not the greatest shooter or athlete, but this late in the draft, I think he was a steal. He just knows how to play basketball. He’s the opposite of a guy like Martel Webster. Webster has the talent to be the next Ray Allen, but has as yet not shown that he knows even how to be the next Allen Ray.

Koponen to Portland – Universally loved by scouts. Good size, decent shooting, good vision and gets to develop in Europe for a couple years. KP learned well in San Antonio. Don’t forget this name.

Second round picks that I liked:

Glen Davis to Boston via trade – Fat players usually stay fat or get fatter, but something tells me this guy is going to make it work. Another guy that just flat knows how to get it done. I don’t care about his combine stats. I think he can help that team right now. He could be a poor man’s Charles Barkley with just the slightest amount of self discipline with the room service menu.

Josh McRoberts to Portland – I know I’m singling out all of Portland’s picks like any homer, but this was a great draft and they deserve it. McRoberts was first round talent. He’s a facilitating forward that doesn’t need plays called for him to be effective. He can rebound, has good handles and is a great passer. Great fit for the team and it doesn’t hurt that he is buddies with Mr. Oden which should ease that transition as well. Inspired pick.

Reyshawn Terry to Dallas via trade – overshadowed by the rest of NC’s impressive talent pool, but for this late, I think he has very good potential.

Renaldas Seibutis to Dallas – Portland had this guy in and he tore up his work out. Everything I read tells me this guy will help Dallas after another year or two in Greece.

Taurean Green to Portland – What you thought I would leave one out? Leader in a winning program. Used to being a distributor first because of the talent around him. Used to being in the spotlight. He has already dramatically outplayed the now overrated Sergio Rodriguez in Summer League. He will push Sergio for minutes this year unless they sign Blake.

PORTLAND’S BIG TRADE

I will admit I was angry and somewhat distraught when this trade was announced. First, it involved bringing Steve Francis to Portland. Second, it appeared that Portland just gave away a 23 and 10 guy and got nothing in return that will help a team in need of scoring, score. I still think Portland should have waited and tried to get more. I still think they gave Zach away for too little. I’m still bummed that’s all they got for their most valuable trade asset. But, as all of the pieces of the trade came to light, KP started looking smart again.

It was a bad trade for Portland because they gave away too much scoring on a team that needs it without getting scoring back.

It was a good trade for Portland because:

1. They got rid of a head case that didn’t fit with this team and almost certainly would have corrupted some or all of the new players. Good riddance to the whole “Hoops Family.”

2. They bought Stevie out so the only harm done from his arrival is to Paul Allen’s wallet and I couldn’t care less about that.

3. Getting Stevie for Zach allowed them to shave off the last 30 mil of Zach’s contract leaving the Blazers lots of space at the exact time they will need to extend Roy and Aldridge. Brilliant.

4. By trading Dickau and Freddie Jones who were not needed they got a trade exception and were able to get James Jones, whose shooting should be a real help and more importantly Phoenix’ pick which they turned into Rudy Fernandez who, I’m telling you, will be a monster.

5. Channing Frye is not a bum. With Oden headed toward lots of foul trouble this year, Frye will be able to help at the 4 and 5. I think he can play with Joel or Lemarcus at either position. Though not well publicized, KP and Nate are building their ultimate team plan around an offense that relies on the bigs being able to beat their man down the floor and either get easy baskets in transition or get early position and avoid double teams. Consider, for example, why Zach gets doubled so much more than say Amare. It’s not only because the Suns have so many other weapons, it is also because Amare is rarely just standing on the block in the half-court set. He beats his man down and ends up single covered by a guard or small forward and gets easy baskets and trips to the FT line. This is what KP and Nate are aiming toward. Frye, like Aldridge, Oden and Outlaw, all fit this model.

FREE AGENTS

Now, real quick to the Free Agents –

Rashard to Orlando – not a max player. He makes Orlando better, but so not worth it. Terrible contract they will regret immediately when they realize that he is only marginally better than Hedo. Plus he will not be enough to make up for the loss of Hill and Darko. Plus, they paid for an extra year at more than 20 mil for no reason. Orlando was going to get him for 5 and 90ish, but instead traded a 2nd round pick and helped Seattle with a trade exception for the rights to overpay for another year. If a trade like that went down in fantasy hoops, the commissioner would get death threats if he let it go through. I like the fit on the team and the aggressiveness of the Magic to get him, but not at that price.

Kapono to the Raptors – You can’t have too many shooters, but this is the classic case of a guy looking better than he is because of his team. See, e.g., Tim Thomas with the Suns. Kapono robbed Toronto plain and simple. He is a poverty stricken man’s MoPete. Plus Toronto should have known Darko was going to be available and held out for him.

Darko to Memphis – Good deal for both sides. Memphis only paid for 3 years at what appears to be a reasonable sum. They get a guy to play up front with Pao who is young and still getting better and Ivaroni should be a great coach for him.

Mo Williams to….? – He should sign with Milwaukie over Miami. He’ll enjoy the extra cash and Milwaukie is better and soon to be lots better. Miami is a paper tiger. The Bucks are a healthy season from being the 3 or 4 seed in the East.

Billups, Carter, Wallace to their old teams – all good moves for all sides. Those teams had to keep those guys or start over which they were not in a good position to do. NJ and Detroit overpaid, but they had to.

Finally, I hope Portland re-signs Outlaw and concocts some kind of trade for a consistent scoring small forward. My dream is Prz, Webster and spare parts for Mike Miller and returning spare parts. But I would take Hedo (the rumor of the moment) if we didn’t over pay.

Whew, glad to get that out of my system finally.

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