Given the significance of this moment, I am way behind getting something posted. But I’m a family first kind of guy and as giddy as I am about the Blazers, that news paled in comparison to the news I got about my Dad yesterday. For those who don’t know, my Dad is fighting the return of a particularly nasty cancer. There is one treatment. It is a drug that either slows or stops the growth or is ineffective. We found out yesterday that preliminary results show that the drug is working. So, rather than watch the biggest draft of the last 20 years I spent the evening coaching my son’s T-Ball team and having dinner with my parents and siblings. It was hard to ignore the roughly 40 emails I got from friends about the draft, but in that context basketball is pretty meaningless. So, please excuse my tardiness in posting about yesterday’s lottery.
But this is a sports blog, so let’s move on to my comments about yesterday’s improbable events.
First, let me speak for reasonable, articulate Blazer fans everywhere when I say
“WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!”
I’m not really sure I can say it any better than that.
So, there I am in the little neighborhood park by my house filling in for our coaches who came to the game late. It was a big game with the Cedar Mill Pirates for whom my son Gibson plays every infield position (there is no outfield) and is the team’s undisputed best hitter (in that he usually hits the ball instead of the T and often hits it past second base which is something like a 600 foot homerun in the MLB based on how frequently it occurs in this league), playing against the Cedar Mill Royals. The coaches were late, so I took the players through warm ups. I discovered that it is nearly impossible to check for draft updates on your blackberry while guarding your groin from the errant throws of 6 year olds warming up for a T-Ball game. So, finally, I put my blackberry away to focus on the task at hand.
I had nearly no thought the Blazers would get a top 3 pick. I was just hoping the Blazers would not fall as low as 7. I made up my mind that Corey Brewer was the best possible scenario for the Blazers and was even concerned that he wouldn’t fall that far. I’ve also been hearing good things about Yi, the new Chinese player who seems to have a game that is modeled exactly after Dirk Nowitzki and I thought maybe he would fall to the Blazers.
Even so, I knew that The Natural was going to represent the Blazers at the lottery, so I threw on my number 7 Roy t-shirt just as a show of support since I’m not a believer in luck or fate or whatever you want to call it. And of course I dreamed of the possibility of landing one of the top 2 picks, but they were only dreams.
Then, after the first inning where both teams scored the same amount of runs as there are players on the team for the 42nd consecutive inning, I checked my blackberry again. There were 27 emails all from my sports fan buddies. The first several were agonizingly vague. They said things like “Oh my gosh!” and “Holy ____!!” People were claiming an inability to type or control their bodily functions, but they were not telling me why. I kept opening message after message until the real message became clear: THE BLAZERS GOT THE NUMBER 1 PICK.
I did a double take. I checked more messages. I even emailed a few people back just to make sure they weren’t messing with me. Then I just stood stunned for what seemed like an hour. A voice inside my head started repeating “are you ready?” I wasn’t sure how to answer. Am I ready to have the best center prospect since Shaq on my team? Am I ready to be cheering on a playoff contender? Am I ready for my favorite team to be relevant again? The question kept getting louder and louder until finally it was accompanied by the face of a bewildered shouting opposing coach yelling “coach are you ready???”
Oh, yeah, I’m in the middle of T-ball.
I stayed up watching every sports show I could to try to make up for missing the biggest moment in franchise history since at least their trip to the NBA finals if not their championship in 77. Now that it is starting to sink in, here are my thoughts in no particular order:
I think you have to take Oden – When Kobe and Shaq were headed for divorce, they started a great debate. Who would you rather build your team around? Shaq is a unique dominant force. Kobe is a hyper-skilled scorer with apparently no ceiling. Both play to win and both have their flaws. In my experience, the common answer outside of LA where people are still drunk on the Kobe Kool-aid, was that if they are both the same age, you take Shaq. Why? Because as skilled as Kobe is, big guys who dominate are extremely rare and two-guards that score in bunches are much less rare.
I agree with that take and would add something else. The best, most consistent basketball teams play the game inside-out rather than outside-in. There are exceptions to that general rule, but in general, the game is better when you can have your first option be close to the basket and allow the perimeter players to play off that rather than the other way around. Something tells me, Chicago Bulls fans will have my back on that one as would anyone who has to play the Spurs. You will just usually be better if your top scorer shoots the high percentage that comes with point-blank shots than if your top scorer is a volume shooting guard who shoots in the 30s.
I’ve already heard comparisons between Oden and Durant to the Okafor/Howard (not in the same league) draft when it could have gone either way and lots of comparisons here in Portland to the Bowie/Jordan fiasco. But this is no Bowie/Jordan. If you are going to go back to that draft, you should be asking Hakeem or Jordan. Even with it being Jordan, that is still a tougher question. Ha made the Rockets contenders and brought them some jewelry as well, but Jordan was the best ever, a marketing freak and got 6 rings for the good folks of Chicago. Still, I think there will never be another Jordan and the closer comparison is Kobe and Shaq. Who do you start with if they are both the same age? Even putting aside my hatred for Kobe, I would still take Shaq. And, likewise, I think you have to take Oden over Durant.
I believe Durant could be the better player. He will certainly be the better scorer and could be a one of a kind franchise player mixing the best of Kobe and KG in an unstoppable combination. Of course, he could also be a more athletic version of Dirk with the same defensive liabilities and could fall in love with his jumper so much that he never becomes more than Rashard Lewis. I really doubt it, but it is possible. To be honest, especially living with the whole “passed on Jordan” thing, I am terrified to pass on Durant. But I think Oden is the better pick. Here’s why:
a. He could be the best true center since Shaq and centers like that come along once every 20 years or so. Great scoring wing players come along in some form just about every year. Maybe not like Durant, but still.
b. Portland needs a 5 more than they need a 3. The current team and what is out there in the league will allow Portland to cover the 3 spot much easier than they can the 5 especially if Przybilla doesn’t awaken from his coma.
c. Personally, I think Oden is going to be better. I have concerns about health, but I think he is going to be dominant offensively when he gets his wrist all the way back and is already a much better defensive player. You can build any kind of lineup you want around a player like that. Not as much with Durant.
Couldn’t be happier for the Celtics and Bucks – I don’t hate those teams. In fact I grew up loving Bird more than anything else about basketball and so always rooted for the Celts. But that tank fest in Milwaukie and the utter incompetence of the Celtics left them undeserving. Glad the basketball gods agreed. Though maybe I shouldn’t be so harsh. After all, it was the Celtics that handed the Blazers The Natural.
Goodbye Zebo, hello Rashard – One of the reasons the Blazers will draft Oden is Nate’s love of Rashard Lewis. He will be the number one off season priority and that means you have to move Zach. Look for a sign and trade that will send Zach to a third team (Chicago? Dallas? Minnesota? NY?) and bring Lewis to Portland. Lewis and Durant play the same position and in fact are going to look a lot like the same player next year. With Seattle getting the Durant pick, that will only make this scenario more likely. Pencil Roy, Aldridge, Lewis and Oden into the starting 5 next year right now.
Season tickets are just too expensive – I bragged about how I would be buying tickets if the Blazers got the first pick. Ummm…well…now that it comes right down to it, as much as I would like to be at every game next year, they are still really expensive and my entertainment dollars are already spent on a ridiculous TV and the NBA package. I’m still trying to work something out, but it looks dicey at the moment.
My who they should take top 8 mock draft. I don’t have inside info to tell you what teams will likely do, so I’m giving you what the top 8 teams in the draft SHOULD do with their picks.
Blazers – Draft Oden, print playoff tickets and look forward to another championship in the next 5 years.
Seattle – Draft Durant and make him the center of rebuilding in Oklahoma City.
Atlanta – Trade this pick – They need a PG, but not bad enough to reach this far on Connely Jr. That is just silly. He should be decent and might even be the next TJ Ford, but there are some really good players to be taken in this spot. I say they trade what should be a very valuable pick to get a PG. In fact, Portland wouldn’t be a bad partner. I hear that Atlanta likes Jack and the Blazers may try to move him and bring back Blake to play some point with Sergio when Roy isn’t handling those duties. Trade this pick to the Blazers for Jack and Webster or some other spare parts. The Blazers can then take Brewer and be shamelessly stacked with young talent.
Memphis – Sucks to be Memphis. I say you take Yi here. Gasol and Yi both come from the international game and I bet they could both play a little 4 and 5 in the new more uptempo NBA. I’m tempted to say Horford, but from the video I’ve seen of Yi, I think he could be something special.
Boston – Wow, did they ever get hit hard. How does all that tanking feel now? I love it. Just love it. Anyway, they still make out alright because they can take Brandon Wright. Still raw, but could fit well with Jefferson especially if they can go small.
Bucks – Did I mention I love what happened to the teams that tanked? Under this scenario they luck out and still get Al Horford. They can go huge and play Charlie at the 3 or just add depth. I know they need a 3 more than a 4, but you can’t pass on Horford at this point especially for guys who are less a sure thing like Julian Wright or Jeff Green
Timberwolves – This is the worst spot in the draft. Everyone on this list with the possible exception of Brewer could have been in the mix for top pick in some of the last several years. I don’t think there is another guy here that you can say that about. I think they should look for a 3 here and go with Jeff Green. I can totally see them reaching on one of the centers here, but I think the talent of Green suits them better after they move KG which they have to do.
Charlotte – I could see them taking Noah, but if you’ve read this blog before you know how I feel about him. I think Thornton is the guy here. Don’t get caught up in need when your team is this bad. Just go with a guy that can help you right now. Thornton is the best talent on the board for my money.
Now what do the Blazers do – Trade Zach. Sign Lewis. Buy out Darius. Trade Jack and Martel for depth at the 3 and/or 1. I love Jack, so that is hard for me to say, but I get the idea, that he doesn’t mesh with Nate. Wake up Joel. Bring the other Joel over from England. Kick Magloire to the curb. Get a shooter. It’s as simple as that.
One more note before signing off. The Blazers will make the playoffs next year. Mark it down.
But this is a sports blog, so let’s move on to my comments about yesterday’s improbable events.
First, let me speak for reasonable, articulate Blazer fans everywhere when I say
“WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!”
I’m not really sure I can say it any better than that.
So, there I am in the little neighborhood park by my house filling in for our coaches who came to the game late. It was a big game with the Cedar Mill Pirates for whom my son Gibson plays every infield position (there is no outfield) and is the team’s undisputed best hitter (in that he usually hits the ball instead of the T and often hits it past second base which is something like a 600 foot homerun in the MLB based on how frequently it occurs in this league), playing against the Cedar Mill Royals. The coaches were late, so I took the players through warm ups. I discovered that it is nearly impossible to check for draft updates on your blackberry while guarding your groin from the errant throws of 6 year olds warming up for a T-Ball game. So, finally, I put my blackberry away to focus on the task at hand.
I had nearly no thought the Blazers would get a top 3 pick. I was just hoping the Blazers would not fall as low as 7. I made up my mind that Corey Brewer was the best possible scenario for the Blazers and was even concerned that he wouldn’t fall that far. I’ve also been hearing good things about Yi, the new Chinese player who seems to have a game that is modeled exactly after Dirk Nowitzki and I thought maybe he would fall to the Blazers.
Even so, I knew that The Natural was going to represent the Blazers at the lottery, so I threw on my number 7 Roy t-shirt just as a show of support since I’m not a believer in luck or fate or whatever you want to call it. And of course I dreamed of the possibility of landing one of the top 2 picks, but they were only dreams.
Then, after the first inning where both teams scored the same amount of runs as there are players on the team for the 42nd consecutive inning, I checked my blackberry again. There were 27 emails all from my sports fan buddies. The first several were agonizingly vague. They said things like “Oh my gosh!” and “Holy ____!!” People were claiming an inability to type or control their bodily functions, but they were not telling me why. I kept opening message after message until the real message became clear: THE BLAZERS GOT THE NUMBER 1 PICK.
I did a double take. I checked more messages. I even emailed a few people back just to make sure they weren’t messing with me. Then I just stood stunned for what seemed like an hour. A voice inside my head started repeating “are you ready?” I wasn’t sure how to answer. Am I ready to have the best center prospect since Shaq on my team? Am I ready to be cheering on a playoff contender? Am I ready for my favorite team to be relevant again? The question kept getting louder and louder until finally it was accompanied by the face of a bewildered shouting opposing coach yelling “coach are you ready???”
Oh, yeah, I’m in the middle of T-ball.
I stayed up watching every sports show I could to try to make up for missing the biggest moment in franchise history since at least their trip to the NBA finals if not their championship in 77. Now that it is starting to sink in, here are my thoughts in no particular order:
I think you have to take Oden – When Kobe and Shaq were headed for divorce, they started a great debate. Who would you rather build your team around? Shaq is a unique dominant force. Kobe is a hyper-skilled scorer with apparently no ceiling. Both play to win and both have their flaws. In my experience, the common answer outside of LA where people are still drunk on the Kobe Kool-aid, was that if they are both the same age, you take Shaq. Why? Because as skilled as Kobe is, big guys who dominate are extremely rare and two-guards that score in bunches are much less rare.
I agree with that take and would add something else. The best, most consistent basketball teams play the game inside-out rather than outside-in. There are exceptions to that general rule, but in general, the game is better when you can have your first option be close to the basket and allow the perimeter players to play off that rather than the other way around. Something tells me, Chicago Bulls fans will have my back on that one as would anyone who has to play the Spurs. You will just usually be better if your top scorer shoots the high percentage that comes with point-blank shots than if your top scorer is a volume shooting guard who shoots in the 30s.
I’ve already heard comparisons between Oden and Durant to the Okafor/Howard (not in the same league) draft when it could have gone either way and lots of comparisons here in Portland to the Bowie/Jordan fiasco. But this is no Bowie/Jordan. If you are going to go back to that draft, you should be asking Hakeem or Jordan. Even with it being Jordan, that is still a tougher question. Ha made the Rockets contenders and brought them some jewelry as well, but Jordan was the best ever, a marketing freak and got 6 rings for the good folks of Chicago. Still, I think there will never be another Jordan and the closer comparison is Kobe and Shaq. Who do you start with if they are both the same age? Even putting aside my hatred for Kobe, I would still take Shaq. And, likewise, I think you have to take Oden over Durant.
I believe Durant could be the better player. He will certainly be the better scorer and could be a one of a kind franchise player mixing the best of Kobe and KG in an unstoppable combination. Of course, he could also be a more athletic version of Dirk with the same defensive liabilities and could fall in love with his jumper so much that he never becomes more than Rashard Lewis. I really doubt it, but it is possible. To be honest, especially living with the whole “passed on Jordan” thing, I am terrified to pass on Durant. But I think Oden is the better pick. Here’s why:
a. He could be the best true center since Shaq and centers like that come along once every 20 years or so. Great scoring wing players come along in some form just about every year. Maybe not like Durant, but still.
b. Portland needs a 5 more than they need a 3. The current team and what is out there in the league will allow Portland to cover the 3 spot much easier than they can the 5 especially if Przybilla doesn’t awaken from his coma.
c. Personally, I think Oden is going to be better. I have concerns about health, but I think he is going to be dominant offensively when he gets his wrist all the way back and is already a much better defensive player. You can build any kind of lineup you want around a player like that. Not as much with Durant.
Couldn’t be happier for the Celtics and Bucks – I don’t hate those teams. In fact I grew up loving Bird more than anything else about basketball and so always rooted for the Celts. But that tank fest in Milwaukie and the utter incompetence of the Celtics left them undeserving. Glad the basketball gods agreed. Though maybe I shouldn’t be so harsh. After all, it was the Celtics that handed the Blazers The Natural.
Goodbye Zebo, hello Rashard – One of the reasons the Blazers will draft Oden is Nate’s love of Rashard Lewis. He will be the number one off season priority and that means you have to move Zach. Look for a sign and trade that will send Zach to a third team (Chicago? Dallas? Minnesota? NY?) and bring Lewis to Portland. Lewis and Durant play the same position and in fact are going to look a lot like the same player next year. With Seattle getting the Durant pick, that will only make this scenario more likely. Pencil Roy, Aldridge, Lewis and Oden into the starting 5 next year right now.
Season tickets are just too expensive – I bragged about how I would be buying tickets if the Blazers got the first pick. Ummm…well…now that it comes right down to it, as much as I would like to be at every game next year, they are still really expensive and my entertainment dollars are already spent on a ridiculous TV and the NBA package. I’m still trying to work something out, but it looks dicey at the moment.
My who they should take top 8 mock draft. I don’t have inside info to tell you what teams will likely do, so I’m giving you what the top 8 teams in the draft SHOULD do with their picks.
Blazers – Draft Oden, print playoff tickets and look forward to another championship in the next 5 years.
Seattle – Draft Durant and make him the center of rebuilding in Oklahoma City.
Atlanta – Trade this pick – They need a PG, but not bad enough to reach this far on Connely Jr. That is just silly. He should be decent and might even be the next TJ Ford, but there are some really good players to be taken in this spot. I say they trade what should be a very valuable pick to get a PG. In fact, Portland wouldn’t be a bad partner. I hear that Atlanta likes Jack and the Blazers may try to move him and bring back Blake to play some point with Sergio when Roy isn’t handling those duties. Trade this pick to the Blazers for Jack and Webster or some other spare parts. The Blazers can then take Brewer and be shamelessly stacked with young talent.
Memphis – Sucks to be Memphis. I say you take Yi here. Gasol and Yi both come from the international game and I bet they could both play a little 4 and 5 in the new more uptempo NBA. I’m tempted to say Horford, but from the video I’ve seen of Yi, I think he could be something special.
Boston – Wow, did they ever get hit hard. How does all that tanking feel now? I love it. Just love it. Anyway, they still make out alright because they can take Brandon Wright. Still raw, but could fit well with Jefferson especially if they can go small.
Bucks – Did I mention I love what happened to the teams that tanked? Under this scenario they luck out and still get Al Horford. They can go huge and play Charlie at the 3 or just add depth. I know they need a 3 more than a 4, but you can’t pass on Horford at this point especially for guys who are less a sure thing like Julian Wright or Jeff Green
Timberwolves – This is the worst spot in the draft. Everyone on this list with the possible exception of Brewer could have been in the mix for top pick in some of the last several years. I don’t think there is another guy here that you can say that about. I think they should look for a 3 here and go with Jeff Green. I can totally see them reaching on one of the centers here, but I think the talent of Green suits them better after they move KG which they have to do.
Charlotte – I could see them taking Noah, but if you’ve read this blog before you know how I feel about him. I think Thornton is the guy here. Don’t get caught up in need when your team is this bad. Just go with a guy that can help you right now. Thornton is the best talent on the board for my money.
Now what do the Blazers do – Trade Zach. Sign Lewis. Buy out Darius. Trade Jack and Martel for depth at the 3 and/or 1. I love Jack, so that is hard for me to say, but I get the idea, that he doesn’t mesh with Nate. Wake up Joel. Bring the other Joel over from England. Kick Magloire to the curb. Get a shooter. It’s as simple as that.
One more note before signing off. The Blazers will make the playoffs next year. Mark it down.
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