NBA News and Notes
I was going to call this “Random unrelated thoughts about the NBA”, but it just doesn’t have that polished journalistic feel that I’m going for with this site even though it is clearly a more descriptive and accurate title.
First some comments on the draft:
1. I loved Portland’s draft. I remember the last time I said or wrote those words about a Trailblazer draft it was….oh wait, never. Now to be fair, I’m not saying they’ve never had a good draft, just not one I can remember, which for practical purposes is pretty much the same thing. I liked last year’s draft except for the whole missing out on Chris Paul thing. I lived through the Damon Stoudamire era, so I was not thrilled when the Blazers put their franchise in the hands of a sub 6 foot guard who couldn’t defend or shoot from the outside. Apparently, the thinking was that if you want to find a pass first point guard, you just take one who can’t shoot and isn’t big enough to create his own shot. This sort of brilliant thinking is what has Portland on its no-end in sight run in the NBA lottery.
Anyway, because I thought Telfair was absolutely not the PG of the future and because I thought Paul was going to be really, really good (even I get one right every once in a while and since it happens rarely, you’ll just have to let me brag about it), I wanted the Blazers to draft Paul and ship Telfair to the bench where maybe he could end up being an Earl Boykins energy guy….again, without the jumpshot.
But, if they weren’t taking Paul, I thought they should trade down, which is exactly what they did and they got Martel Webster and Jarret Jack. JJ spent last year impressing me. The team played better with him in, he is strong, can take the ball to the basket and has just enough of a jumper to keep the D a little honest and make you think it will be better and better over time. He works hard, plays good D, basically what you want in a rookie PG. I’m not sure about Webster yet. He is not a great athlete and absolutely loves the 3 point line. I know we got him to stretch the D and so I can forgive some of the 3s, but dude just basically camped on the arc and waited and very very rarely took the ball to the basket. Still, he’s a kid, so I’m cutting him some slack.
My take on Webster at the moment is that he may be the best current NBA comparison to the guy every Portlander besides me wanted to draft: Adam Morrison. Both have the height and game to play some at the 2 and some at the 3, neither are good athletes and right now, neither can do much more than hit an open outside shot. But Webster is younger, a better rebounder and defender and isn’t a cry baby. So, in addition to the fact that Morrison was not the best player for Portland in the draft (I think he was the 6th best behind Aldridge, Roy, Foye, Thomas and Gay), I think Portland already had a younger, better version in Webster.
This year’s draft was great though. I thought Aldridge was the best prospect with size in the draft and am very intrigued by the comparisons to Bosh who is a bona fide stud. I waffled a bit, but concluded finally that he was the best player for Portland in the draft and would have been my choice if the Blazers had had the first pick. My real favorite guy though was Roy. I think he can be Joe Johnson with serious defense. He is the kind of guy who goes all out all the time and was easily the most impressive guy I saw in the Tourney last year. A great, great player in the making I think. I see him as the closest thing to Joe Dumars to come out of College in a long time.
So, for Portland to get both those guys is an obvious coup. We also moved Telfair who I believe was causing some chemistry issues (though I have to give him credit for not squawking publicly about being demoted to the bench), had obvious weaknesses and most importantly was going to impede the development of Jack because he would always be there stealing minutes because of the investment Portland had made in him. I hated losing Ratliff as he was a difference maker in games that he played in, but he was over the hill and of no help on the offensive end and LaFrentz should help them score off the bench which Portland couldn’t do at all last year.
I don’t know much about “Spanish Chocolate” or Freeland. I hear good things about both of them, but mostly I hear that other teams liked them as well. This gives me hope that they will be around only long enough to offer as a sweetener for a Darius Miles deal. All the Blazers have done right with the draft will be meaningless unless they can move Miles.
The rest of the draft was nothing special in my mind. Other guys I like to be good pros include Foye, Gay, Williams and maybe Farmar. I think all these guys help their teams right away. I’m not super impressed with anyone else.
2. Watch out for N.O. See what one player can do for a franchise? Chris Paul (and to a lesser degree the underrated David West) changed the attitude of everything in the Big Easy. Their penny pinching owner finally coughed up some money and is competing with Chicago for most exciting offseason. The thing is, while I appreciate the effort, I’m not sure I like the moves. I guess they had to ship Smith, since the coach hated him and all, but he was a lot of talent to give up on so early. PJ Brown was no big loss on the talent and production side since David West eats up the minutes, but he was, by all accounts, a good locker room guy which can hurt a young team. But they got Chandler who is as brittle as Marcus Camby with none of Camby’s offensive skills. And Peja who is a great shooter, but has been brittle lately himself. Peja was pretty human when he no longer had Weber and Vlade drawing attention and kicking to him in Sacto. So the question is will West draw enough attention to get Peja the open looks? I love having a sharp shooter, but it was expensive. I’m concerned NO decided not to waste Paul, but they’ve given him guys that might not combine to play 80 games next year. We’ll see. It is certainly an upgrade, but I’m not sure the playoffs are a lock. All that said, I’m not going underestimate Paul’s ability. I know I keep saying this, but he’s Jason Kidd with a jumper. It will break my heart if he blows out a knee next season.
3. Chicago upgraded its team immensely, but I’m not willing to hand them the Eastern conference title. I read that they are a popular pick to win the East. Really? Call me when they make that much rumored KG trade and not before. I would still take Miami, Cleveland and New Jersey assuming each can make some slight adjustments. I like Chicago, but my guess is they have a year of figuring out how to play together. Still Wallace is a big upgrade over Chandler, but no one is talking about the fact that Chicago has exactly no players who can provide offense on the low block. Thomas and Wallace are both hustle guys, but neither will be able to go down and get a big bucket down low or draw a double team. Chicago is better because of these deals, but not lots better. I thought they should have drafted Aldridge and kept him….though I’m glad they didn’t.
4. Here’s my early prediction about the potential fantasy impact of this year’s rookie crop:
a. Bargnani – He’ll struggle, but have a few nice games. Still I don’t think I will draft him.
b. Aldridge – this all depends on what Portland does with Zach Randolph. If they move him, Aldridge will be a usefull 4th forward with some good shot blocking skills and lots of touches around the basket. If not, I don’t think you’ll see many returns until after Christmas
c. Morrison – Think a less consistent Melo. If you like that game in fantasy, Draft Morrison in the 7th round and brace yourself for a long season.
d. Thomas – I won’t draft him. Especially with Wallace there now. I’ll keep my eye on him for blocks and boards, but I don’t expect him to make an impact this year.
e. Sheldon Williams – I’ve been mixed on the nickname here. The Landlord. Sounds like a cartoon superhero villain somehow. But, I’ve decided I like it. I’ve also decided I love the Hawks for taking him because it meant Roy dropped. And, as much as I thought it was too high to take him, I actually think he will make an immediate impact for the Hawks. I think he could put up healthy Emeka Okafor type numbers. He could do 12pts, 10rebs and 2blks. He will have little competition on the low block and even though he’s a bit undersized, he’s long and smart. I don’t see him blowing up, but I see him as one of the more useful rookies.
f. Brandon Roy – I think he’s going to be an absolute stud….eventually. But right now, he’s going to have his minutes limited by a fairly deep guard rotation by the Blazers with a lot of guys still trying to make a name. I think Roy might have the most talent of any of them but he won’t get the consistent run needed to make him a big time fantasy guy.
g. Randy Foye – I also love this guy and think he could by a fantasy sleeper. Regardless of what Minny does with KG, (unless they bring in a PG), Foye should get minutes and I see him capable of putting up Jason Terry like numbers (maybe with less 3s), right away. He won’t be Chris Paul, but he could be a very, very poor man’s Joe Johnson.
h. Rudy Gay – Here’s the first guy I could see being a regular fantasy starter this year. He’s in a great place in Memphis with good coaching and not very many scorers. He’s long enough to get steals and boards. Memphis sometimes has a tough time getting guys minutes, but if he can get them, he could be this year’s Charlie Vilanueva.
Other guys to keep your eye on – Simmons in N.O could be good for blocks and boards especially behind the brittle Chandler. Carney in Philly should be able to put up numbers finishing when the attention is elsewhere. Douby in Sacto should be able to score right away if he can just get some minutes. I also think Brown in Cleveland and Farmar in UCLA could be fantasy contributors this year.
I was going to call this “Random unrelated thoughts about the NBA”, but it just doesn’t have that polished journalistic feel that I’m going for with this site even though it is clearly a more descriptive and accurate title.
First some comments on the draft:
1. I loved Portland’s draft. I remember the last time I said or wrote those words about a Trailblazer draft it was….oh wait, never. Now to be fair, I’m not saying they’ve never had a good draft, just not one I can remember, which for practical purposes is pretty much the same thing. I liked last year’s draft except for the whole missing out on Chris Paul thing. I lived through the Damon Stoudamire era, so I was not thrilled when the Blazers put their franchise in the hands of a sub 6 foot guard who couldn’t defend or shoot from the outside. Apparently, the thinking was that if you want to find a pass first point guard, you just take one who can’t shoot and isn’t big enough to create his own shot. This sort of brilliant thinking is what has Portland on its no-end in sight run in the NBA lottery.
Anyway, because I thought Telfair was absolutely not the PG of the future and because I thought Paul was going to be really, really good (even I get one right every once in a while and since it happens rarely, you’ll just have to let me brag about it), I wanted the Blazers to draft Paul and ship Telfair to the bench where maybe he could end up being an Earl Boykins energy guy….again, without the jumpshot.
But, if they weren’t taking Paul, I thought they should trade down, which is exactly what they did and they got Martel Webster and Jarret Jack. JJ spent last year impressing me. The team played better with him in, he is strong, can take the ball to the basket and has just enough of a jumper to keep the D a little honest and make you think it will be better and better over time. He works hard, plays good D, basically what you want in a rookie PG. I’m not sure about Webster yet. He is not a great athlete and absolutely loves the 3 point line. I know we got him to stretch the D and so I can forgive some of the 3s, but dude just basically camped on the arc and waited and very very rarely took the ball to the basket. Still, he’s a kid, so I’m cutting him some slack.
My take on Webster at the moment is that he may be the best current NBA comparison to the guy every Portlander besides me wanted to draft: Adam Morrison. Both have the height and game to play some at the 2 and some at the 3, neither are good athletes and right now, neither can do much more than hit an open outside shot. But Webster is younger, a better rebounder and defender and isn’t a cry baby. So, in addition to the fact that Morrison was not the best player for Portland in the draft (I think he was the 6th best behind Aldridge, Roy, Foye, Thomas and Gay), I think Portland already had a younger, better version in Webster.
This year’s draft was great though. I thought Aldridge was the best prospect with size in the draft and am very intrigued by the comparisons to Bosh who is a bona fide stud. I waffled a bit, but concluded finally that he was the best player for Portland in the draft and would have been my choice if the Blazers had had the first pick. My real favorite guy though was Roy. I think he can be Joe Johnson with serious defense. He is the kind of guy who goes all out all the time and was easily the most impressive guy I saw in the Tourney last year. A great, great player in the making I think. I see him as the closest thing to Joe Dumars to come out of College in a long time.
So, for Portland to get both those guys is an obvious coup. We also moved Telfair who I believe was causing some chemistry issues (though I have to give him credit for not squawking publicly about being demoted to the bench), had obvious weaknesses and most importantly was going to impede the development of Jack because he would always be there stealing minutes because of the investment Portland had made in him. I hated losing Ratliff as he was a difference maker in games that he played in, but he was over the hill and of no help on the offensive end and LaFrentz should help them score off the bench which Portland couldn’t do at all last year.
I don’t know much about “Spanish Chocolate” or Freeland. I hear good things about both of them, but mostly I hear that other teams liked them as well. This gives me hope that they will be around only long enough to offer as a sweetener for a Darius Miles deal. All the Blazers have done right with the draft will be meaningless unless they can move Miles.
The rest of the draft was nothing special in my mind. Other guys I like to be good pros include Foye, Gay, Williams and maybe Farmar. I think all these guys help their teams right away. I’m not super impressed with anyone else.
2. Watch out for N.O. See what one player can do for a franchise? Chris Paul (and to a lesser degree the underrated David West) changed the attitude of everything in the Big Easy. Their penny pinching owner finally coughed up some money and is competing with Chicago for most exciting offseason. The thing is, while I appreciate the effort, I’m not sure I like the moves. I guess they had to ship Smith, since the coach hated him and all, but he was a lot of talent to give up on so early. PJ Brown was no big loss on the talent and production side since David West eats up the minutes, but he was, by all accounts, a good locker room guy which can hurt a young team. But they got Chandler who is as brittle as Marcus Camby with none of Camby’s offensive skills. And Peja who is a great shooter, but has been brittle lately himself. Peja was pretty human when he no longer had Weber and Vlade drawing attention and kicking to him in Sacto. So the question is will West draw enough attention to get Peja the open looks? I love having a sharp shooter, but it was expensive. I’m concerned NO decided not to waste Paul, but they’ve given him guys that might not combine to play 80 games next year. We’ll see. It is certainly an upgrade, but I’m not sure the playoffs are a lock. All that said, I’m not going underestimate Paul’s ability. I know I keep saying this, but he’s Jason Kidd with a jumper. It will break my heart if he blows out a knee next season.
3. Chicago upgraded its team immensely, but I’m not willing to hand them the Eastern conference title. I read that they are a popular pick to win the East. Really? Call me when they make that much rumored KG trade and not before. I would still take Miami, Cleveland and New Jersey assuming each can make some slight adjustments. I like Chicago, but my guess is they have a year of figuring out how to play together. Still Wallace is a big upgrade over Chandler, but no one is talking about the fact that Chicago has exactly no players who can provide offense on the low block. Thomas and Wallace are both hustle guys, but neither will be able to go down and get a big bucket down low or draw a double team. Chicago is better because of these deals, but not lots better. I thought they should have drafted Aldridge and kept him….though I’m glad they didn’t.
4. Here’s my early prediction about the potential fantasy impact of this year’s rookie crop:
a. Bargnani – He’ll struggle, but have a few nice games. Still I don’t think I will draft him.
b. Aldridge – this all depends on what Portland does with Zach Randolph. If they move him, Aldridge will be a usefull 4th forward with some good shot blocking skills and lots of touches around the basket. If not, I don’t think you’ll see many returns until after Christmas
c. Morrison – Think a less consistent Melo. If you like that game in fantasy, Draft Morrison in the 7th round and brace yourself for a long season.
d. Thomas – I won’t draft him. Especially with Wallace there now. I’ll keep my eye on him for blocks and boards, but I don’t expect him to make an impact this year.
e. Sheldon Williams – I’ve been mixed on the nickname here. The Landlord. Sounds like a cartoon superhero villain somehow. But, I’ve decided I like it. I’ve also decided I love the Hawks for taking him because it meant Roy dropped. And, as much as I thought it was too high to take him, I actually think he will make an immediate impact for the Hawks. I think he could put up healthy Emeka Okafor type numbers. He could do 12pts, 10rebs and 2blks. He will have little competition on the low block and even though he’s a bit undersized, he’s long and smart. I don’t see him blowing up, but I see him as one of the more useful rookies.
f. Brandon Roy – I think he’s going to be an absolute stud….eventually. But right now, he’s going to have his minutes limited by a fairly deep guard rotation by the Blazers with a lot of guys still trying to make a name. I think Roy might have the most talent of any of them but he won’t get the consistent run needed to make him a big time fantasy guy.
g. Randy Foye – I also love this guy and think he could by a fantasy sleeper. Regardless of what Minny does with KG, (unless they bring in a PG), Foye should get minutes and I see him capable of putting up Jason Terry like numbers (maybe with less 3s), right away. He won’t be Chris Paul, but he could be a very, very poor man’s Joe Johnson.
h. Rudy Gay – Here’s the first guy I could see being a regular fantasy starter this year. He’s in a great place in Memphis with good coaching and not very many scorers. He’s long enough to get steals and boards. Memphis sometimes has a tough time getting guys minutes, but if he can get them, he could be this year’s Charlie Vilanueva.
Other guys to keep your eye on – Simmons in N.O could be good for blocks and boards especially behind the brittle Chandler. Carney in Philly should be able to put up numbers finishing when the attention is elsewhere. Douby in Sacto should be able to score right away if he can just get some minutes. I also think Brown in Cleveland and Farmar in UCLA could be fantasy contributors this year.
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