The Blazers should have gotten the number one pick. They did their best to lose every single game down the stretch and had more ping-pong balls than anyone. Thankfully, they were robbed. Giving the number one pick to the Blazers would be like putting a super-juiced up driver in the hands of a bad golfer. A longer driver in the hands of a bad golfer just means he hits the shot even further out of bounds. The Blazers are so inept when it comes to the draft, giving them the first pick would just be setting them up for another catastrophic failure. Without question they would have taken Center Patrick O’Bryant from Bradley. O’Bryant is a completely unproven bigman with plenty of “upside.” You know, like Olowakandi was when the Clippers made him the number one pick a few years back.
Speaking of the Clippers, are the Blazers the new Clippers? Now that the Clips have advanced in the playoffs and the Hawks’ questionable spending on Joe Johnson now looks like a good move, haven’t the Blazers officially taken over as the worst run franchise in the NBA, if not all of sports? Oh wait. I forgot about the Knicks. Man I love Isaiah Thomas. His consistent mishandling of everything related to basketball brings me nothing but joy since (a) I hate Isaiah Thomas and (b) I hate the Knicks. Good times. If the Blazers could find a way to ship D Miles to the Knicks for any combination of players that didn’t include Marbury, Francis or Rose, I would take back all the bad stuff I’ve said about the Blazers in the last few months, and that’s a lot.
Back to my point, the Blazers are too incompetent to handle the pressure of the number one pick. They would have over thought it and ended up with some chump. Brandon Roy seems the natural pick, but they would have thought, is he really a number one? Isn’t his ceiling a little low? Then they would have gone looking for potential. It is especially dangerous in a draft like this with no obvious stars, because the reaction of many GMs, including the Blazers, is to think, I have to find a star, I have to find a star and if there is no star in front of me, I will find the guy with the greatest star potential and pass on all the players that can already really play. The problem is, that the potential guy misses a lot more than he hits as a draft pick. The pressure of the number one pick just adds to the risk.
At number 4, there is no pressure and no significant drop off from the players who will be selected 1-3. I think there are 6 players in this draft who I would place in the same category in terms of value: Bargnani, Thomas (though I still have my doubts), Morrison, Aldridge, Gay and Roy. They won’t all be equal when they retire and some or most of them could end up being a bust, but going with what we know now, I think their odds going in are relatively even. Thomas and Morrison worry me the most. Thomas because he just hasn’t played much good meaningful basketball ever, or shown any ability to create his own shot. Morrison because he can’t defend, jump or really take the ball hard to the hoop. All these guys though could arguably go number one or 6.
For the Blazers, each of these players fits a current need, so I will go through my thoughts on each of them as potential picks for the Blazers in no particular order:
1. Bargnani – I’ve seen very little of this “next Dirk,” but what I’ve seen of him on film available on line, looks pretty good. By the way, since every Euro that comes over is called the next Dirk, does that make Dirk the Euro Michael Jordan? Is this going to doom an entire generation of good foreign players with impossible expectations the way MJ did for American players? I wonder. Maybe I’ll ask Darko. Anyway, in a perfect world, Bargnani would be perfect for Portland. He seems best suited to play the 3 and prefers to play facing the basket on the perimeter. This would allow him to play well with Zach who I think is here to stay for a while, like it or not. He can shoot, which the Blazers desperately need and spread the D and still play some inside. That said, it is not a perfect world, especially in Portland. I think to bring a kid like this into an NBA team, there needs to be some good character veteran guys to help him come along and do some mentoring. Portland has exactly none of that kind of player. Also, Toronto seems obsessed with him, so I don’t think he’ll be there for Portland anyway.
2. Thomas – Listen, as I keep saying, maybe if he works out great, then he could be a good fit for Portland. He would be an energy guy and a good rebounder and shot blocker who could fill the lane on the fast break. But I watched those tourney games that turned this kid into a potential number one pick and he was not all that. He was ok as second fiddle to big baby, but there is a reason no one had ever heard of him before. Where was all that during the regular season? Might it go away again? Why would we think that 2 games is the “real” Thomas and all the others were just him feeling his way? I’m not saying he won’t be great, I’m just saying we haven’t seen much evidence yet.
3. Morrison – I still say the best case scenario is that this guy scores 20+ ppg, hits some 3s and does nothing else other than get burned on D, a lot. And that’s best case. Don’t get me wrong, the Blazers are in desperate need of a scorer. It may be their single biggest need for the short term. That said, I am not convinced Morrison will be able to even be a consistent scorer in the NBA. I loved him in college. Loved him. I loved his fire and goofiness and incredible scoring feel, but that was when every play was run for him and he had the constant green light from anywhere which he would not get from coach Nate even on a team as bad as Portland. His popularity will make him tempting and he could be there when the Blazers pick, but I hope Charlotte takes him so the Blazers don’t have to.
4. Aldridge – This guy was good to dominant all year. He can score inside and even step out on the floor a bit. He is a good rebounder and shot-blocker. Even though he is probably a 4, I think he could not only play with Zach, but I think he would make Zach better. Zach played his best ball when Sheed was still a Blazer, which was while he still played in the post a fair amount. The more athletic and passive Wallace could let Zach pound in the post and be ready for the put back after the double team. I think Aldridge could be that guy as well. Plus, he allows you some flexibility to move Zach if the right opportunity comes along since he could play the 4. I think, this is the right pick for the Blazers even though he and Zebo play the same position.
5. Roy – I love this guy. If you watched the NCAA tourney, chances are you do too. He carried Washington, not only on offense, but on D. I think he could be the second coming of Joe Dumars. He is a strong big guard who could be a legit stopper on D and useful scorer on the other end. If Aldridge is gone, this is the guy, and I couldn’t be that upset if they took him ahead of Aldridge. He’s got Morrison’s fire and heart, but he can play D and still score.
6. Gay – I think this guy is for real. I think he could be the one guy from the top of this draft (I think Foye might be another) that makes GMs who passed look really bad. I don’t think he fit in well at UConn. I think Calhoun didn’t use him right and didn’t free him up to be as aggressive as he needed to be. I think he’s a legit 2 or 3 and would like him for the Blazers if they hadn’t drafted Webster last year. Gay actually has more potential, but I think having them both would hurt both of their development. That said, Gay could be the next Ray Allen.
So I’m happy the Blazers didn’t get the first pick. Neither the franchise, nor the player they would take could likely stand up to that sort of pressure. The 4th pick? Perfect. Some of the guys will be gone and whoever they pick will seem smarter than if they had taken them earlier. I regret the diminished value if a higher pick could have helped sweeten a deal to move Miles, but I think it was just what the Blazers needed. Now if they could just get some stability, competence and common sense, they would be on their way to becoming an NBA team again.
Comments
Morrison - It really boils down to whether he is going to be the next Wally Z or a variation of Rip Hamilton and Reggie Miller. If it is the latter - if he becomes a lethal assassin using screens to perfection - then he will be a very good NBA player. If it is the former ... yuck. I tend to think that he has "poor man's Wally" in his future, because I don't think he has the ability to get separation from superior athletes, of which the NBA has plenty.
Roy - You know I love Roy. He will be the Rookie of the Year (Roy for ROY - start the campaign now!) and one of the best players in the draft. I think he might just be there for Portland and that he would be a great pick, especially since he has NW ties after playing at UW.
Aldridge - You are right that he could work well with Randolph, but the key is whether he can and will block shots in the NBA. I think you can get away with a skinny guy and a wide guy that are both power forwards, as long as one can body up and the other can block shots from the weak side. That is why Kurt Thomas was playing such good D for Phoenix - he was bodying up on centers and Marion was coming over to wipe away shots. I thought that Orlando should have drafted Sean May for this reason last year, but now they have Darko anyway, so it doesn't matter. But Howard would have been the perfect PF to pair with May.
Gay – It is interesting that you are up on Gay but that you hate Miles, because when I see Gay, I see Darius Miles with a jumper. I’m sorry, but guys that play hard 20% of the time in college scare me to death. He is laconic, doesn’t move his feet, and makes more mental mistakes than Stephen Jackson. He has a great wingspan and a pretty jumper, but I wouldn’t take Gay even at gunpoint. (Now Foye, on the other hand, I would take.)
Alright, I'm out.
Good points about Thomas. I'm not so much down on him as I am worried. Like I said, if he works out well, he could be worth the risk, but he better go to a team where he is not asked to score on anything but putbacks and that's a tough sell for a guy if you're talking taking him number one overall.
Not only that, but there have to be some bitter NBA teams that Noah stayed in school. Toronto and Portland could really use him, Chicago liked him, and the Hawks got screwed worst of all because Noah's involvement would have pushed a big man (maybe not Noah, but somebody) down to number five. Now the Raptors are going to take their third power forward, Portland won't get Bargnani (who would probably be there at 4 if Noah could go to the Raptors), and the Hawks are going to get another swingman. All because one guy was having too much fun in college. Then again, NBA execs might have been too stupid to figure this out anyway, so maybe I should say that there are some bitter NBA fans due to Noah going back to school.
Enjoy Heat-Pistons.
(By the way, this is great. It is like emailing but with the possibility that other people can see our fantastic and intelligent exchanges.)